Dear Mr. Layton
To: Layton.J@parl.gc.ca
CC: Christopherson.D@parl.gc.ca
Re: commonsense compromise?
Dear Mr. Layton,
In the last election, I voted for David Christopherson in the riding of Hamilton Centre, Ontario. In spite of my continued respect for Mr. Christopherson, I now find myself wondering if my vote was a mistake.
Mr. Layton, allow me to ask you a simple question: how stupid do you think Canadians are?
Your website, in the section entitled Commonsense Compromise, describes in calm and reasonable tones the “compromise” the NDP has forged with your latest allies, the separatists and conservatives:
The NDP can put forward a common sense compromise that allows the election to proceed in an orderly, reasonable manner — and keep getting things done for people. That’s what Jack Layton outlined last week.
On Sunday, Canada’s three opposition leaders demonstrated the same willingness to compromise. A majority of Parliament now supports an election call in early January for a vote in mid-February. It’s a common sense solution to the situation in Parliament, and there’s nothing preventing the Liberal Party from saying yes.
Nothing, that is, except the release of the second installment of the Gomery Report on February 1, smack in the middle of your proposed election campaign. How can you expect Canadians to see this as anything less than blatant political opportunism?
To make matters worse for Canadians, who would like to enjoy the holiday season by eating turkeys instead of watching them parading on TV, the Liberals are extremely unlikely to agree to your “reasonable compromise”, which isn’t even constitutional. This paves the way for you to announce you have no choice but to trigger a holiday election because the Liberals are unreasonable.
Mr. Layton, let me ask you again: how stupid do you think Canadians are? Do you really think we can’t see through this ploy, which is about as opaque as a December icicle?
You have had numerous, legitimate opportunities to topple the government. You will have many more. I suggest you either take advantage of one of these opportunities, or cease wasting our time with calculated political strategies that are certainly not “getting things done for people”.
Canadians aren’t stupid, Mr. Layton. Treating us as such will bring painful consequences at the ballot box.
Sincerely,
Adrian Duyzer
November 15th, 2005 at 2:55 pm
I think Mr. Layton was more concerned with the press coverage, than both tactical politics and good sense. He must have known that he can’t have it both ways: confidence now, non-confidence later. He must have known that the Prime Minister would never agree to the dissolution of Parliament on these terms. Mr. Layton knew two other things. That the press would be salivating to hear him speak, and, that he would be the first of the dithering opposition’ites to say anything succinct on the subjects of confidence votes and elections.
The opposition has scuttled their opportunity to bring down the government, foremost by by dragging their feet individually, but also by trying to act collectively. A good Liberal friend summed it up for me on the weekend: “The whole time these idiots were taunting the press with election calls and confidence motions the focus moved completely off of Gomery.” There was no more thrust behind the press to cover Liberal scandal. The opposition had effectively moved the focus off Gomery and onto their own collective election-call sideshow. In doing so, they threw away the only ammo they had, and fumbled the chance to have a successful election opportunity. They may still topple the government, but now they do so at great peril to their own seat count. Layton got his day in the spot light, but it may cost him in the long run.
November 16th, 2005 at 8:32 am
I’m really of two minds about this.
The Liberals have always campaigned left of centre (to assuage Canadian voters, who lean progressive as a whole), and then governed right of centre (to assuage their corporate base, which after all pays the bills). For election after election, I’ve watched helplessly as the Liberals co-opted the NDP’s platforms and presented themselves as the lesser evil, warning voters that a vote for the NDP would be a vote for the Conservatives.
During this minority government, the NDP are the only party that actually tried to work within the parliamentary system to achieve their policy objectives, by forcing the Liberals to keep their own promises to voters for a change. They stuck their necks out and bargained hard for billions of dollars in spending on public infrastructure, sustainable transportation, education, and health care while the other parties scrambled to distance themselves from the one party capable of implementing policy.
The Conservatives spent the entire time watching the polls, making critical noises at every turn, and generally refusing to commit publicly to a position even on issues for which they already have an official policy – for example, Canada’s participation in the US Ballistic Missile Defense System, which fits the Conservative policy of broad continental integration like a glove.
Instead, knowing that their views are way out of step with those of most Canadians, they have tried to present themselves as a more honest (remember the scandal-plagued Mulroney and Harris governments?) and more fiscally responsible (most economists agreed that their budget during the last election campaign would produce deficits) in a general sort of way.
The Bloc Quebecois, in typical fashion, stood around smugly the whole time, smirking at English Canada because they know damn well that Quebecois voters hate every other party too much not to keep voting for the Bloc.
The Liberals’ new mini-budget makes it impossible for the NDP to continue voting with them. The Liberals claim that the budget’s $40 billion in tax cuts is weighed to the midle class, but that’s rubbish. It’s mathematically impossible for tax cuts not to benefit the very wealthy in far greater absolute terms than for lower income earners. In this case, much of the cuts are actually for Canadian corporations which are already lower than the G7 average.
This is why the NDP are withdrawing their support of the minority government: this budget is a gift to corporations and the wealthy, wrapped up in a populist bow. Unfortunately, the way they are presenting it looks too much like opportunism. However, the NDP may not have had any choice.
Rather than joining hands with the Conservatives and the Bloc, the NDP could have turned the focus right back on the Liberal budget, calling it what it is and continuing to articulate their policy – which already resonates with most Canadians. However, there’s a chance the Conservatives might have voted in favour of the tax cuts at the last minute; giving it enough votes to pass despite NDP opposition. Joining a non-confidence motion is the only way the NDP can prevent the grab bag of tax cuts from becoming law.
I still think a Liberal minority with an NDP opposition is the best bet for good government in Canada, but I fully expect Canadian newsmedia to rake the NDP over the coals and ignore the deeper issues. Canada’s corporate newsmedia have always hated the NDP, and I was really surprised to see Layton getting some good press in the summer. Ultimately, it was more a function of extreme dissatisfaction with the Liberals than an ideological change of heart, and I expect the media are happy to get back to more comfortable ground: slamming the NDP at every opportunity, and ignoring them the rest of the time.
November 16th, 2005 at 11:22 am
You’re right that the NDP has proven itself effective at forcing the Liberals to deliver much-needed changes. Until this latest fiasco, I’ve been pretty pleased with what they’ve managed to accomplish, and I’ve felt that Layton has performed very well.
I don’t actually have a problem with the NDP deciding it can no longer support the Liberals, and then voting against the government on a matter of confidence. That’s how our parliamentary system is supposed to work. I do have a problem with toothless political stunts like the “non-confidence lite” motion, as Martin accurately called it.
I think the reason I’m so annoyed is because it really does feel as though the opposition – the Conservatives, Bloc and NDP – think we’re stupid. The timing of the proposed election is clearly intended to coincide with the release of the 2nd installment of the Gomery report, but no one wants to say that. I would be happier if Layton were to stand up and simply state, “We want the election at this time because yeah, that way we don’t have to campaign during Christmas, but also because the timing of the election is really going to screw the Liberals when the report comes out.”
In today’s political climate, where I suspect our governing elites might really think ordinary Canadians are idiots, it’s probably hopelessly naive of me to think that being this frank would cross anyone’s mind. Instead, we get such statements as “there’s nothing preventing the Liberal Party from saying yes”. Nothing, except a political nuclear bomb right in the middle of the campaign.
Worse, the reason Layton has suddenly gone from public enemy #1 to hero on the blogs of Canadian conservatives everywhere is because this proposal, were it to play out as Layton has outlined it, would benefit the Conservatives more than anyone else. It’s a recipe for a Conservative minority government.
So why would the NDP even entertain such a proposal? Because they don’t like the tax cuts for corporations in the Liberal mini-budget? But the Liberals had already stated they were going to introduce the cuts after the last budget. It shouldn’t have come as any surprise. Instead, I’m left feeling as though the NDP decided it would risk a Conservative government in the hopes of picking up a few more seats from disaffected Liberals.
I just don’t see it working out that way.
November 16th, 2005 at 1:36 pm
I understand where your assumptions are coming from, but I’m not sure it will actually play out that way.
Canada’s first-past-the-post system is agonizingly hard to predict. It’s a “tipping point” system, where a few points’ shift one way or the other can deliver an entire riding.
After its initial plunge, Canadian support for the Liberals seems to be immune to new adscam revelations. There are a few possible reasons for this:
1) Voters are now immune to scandal, having passed the political outrage event horizon. No amount of corruption surprises us anymore.
2) In the grand scheme of things, adscam wasn’t really all that big a deal. A hundred million dollars over five years equals $0.67 per person per year. Heck, I squander/lose more money than that in a given week. Compared to the institutionalized pork-barrelling across the border, adscam seems almost quaint.
3) The Conservatives really aren’t a serious alternative, and even they seem to know it, which is why they seem almost embarrassed of their own policies. At least the U.S. Republicans have the guts to be unapologetic.
My guess is that Layton is betting centrist voters won’t move to the right, while left-leaning voters will move to the NDP, leaving a smaller Liberal minority with more NDP representation.
Any move Layton makes to increase the NDP’s share of the vote risks handing seats to the Conservatives. That’s precisely how the Liberals keep getting elected – by exploiting that fear. However, their only alternative is to abrogate the political field altogether, leaving Canada as a de facto one party state (where the meta-party has a socially moderate wing and a socially conservative wing).
Surprise or not, the NDP have to opppose them if they’re going to stay true to their principles. I seem to recall the NDP warning the Liberals back in the summer that their support would end if the Liberals went ahead with the tax cuts.
November 16th, 2005 at 3:51 pm
More than 30% of the current federal members of parliament won their seat by fewer than 5000 votes. That’s a very volatile electoral situation.
Some other points to note: Liberal fortunes in Quebec are not likely to be great. The key battleground is bound to be Ontario, where the Tories have managed to capture only a few rural seats, but voter apathy runs high. Historically, the NDP are most negatively affected by a low voter turnout – one can only assume the declining trend in voter participation will continue into the next election (maybe increase if an early spring election is called). I predict (despite any ruminations about leftist and rightist voters) that the NDP is going to lose seats. This next election will be fuelled by regional rhetoric and negative sentiments towards Liberal (party) nationalism. The NDP does not speak well to either of these subjects. And despite their best efforts to “make Parliament work” – this core electoral message is going to overshadowed in the fear-mongering that the Libs and Tories are bound to unleash.
Ryan, a clarification to your first post. The Liberal’s recent economic & fiscal update is not a budget per se (mini or otherwise). It is being termed a mini-budget, but it has no legislative effect as a whole until it is introduced formally as a budget next February. The Liberals have taken steps to quickly introduce a motion on two of the persoanl tax measures outlined in the update, but this should not be confused with a guarantee that all of the proposed legislation included in the so-called mini-budget will become a reality. The update could shape the Liberal’s fiscal platform in the election, but it is more popularly believed to be a manouevre to co-opt the electoral issues of the Tories and the NDP. The Liberals have essentially made promises in the area of tax cuts and social spending, while at the same time underscoring the government’s fiscal management skills – projecting successively greater budgetary surpluses through to 2010. It is a very sound electoral strategy for the incumbent party, but it will make this campaign ugly, forcing the opposition to champion issues about the fundamental nature of Canada as a national project rather than how we spend our tax money. The Tories have been very unsuccessful at engaging in this dialogue thus far, and it is likely going to be the Liberals electoral trump card. Jack Layton will have watch from the sidelines.
November 16th, 2005 at 4:33 pm
It’s a powerful trump card, especially given the improving fortunes of the Bloc. In addition to the three possible reasons Ryan gives for why “Canadian support for the Liberals seems to be immune to new adscam revelations”, of which I definitely agree with 1 (partial immunity to scandal) and 2 (adscam not being a huge deal), this becomes the fourth: Canadians think the Liberals are the only party that can hold the country together.
Ryan, your analysis of what the NDP might be predicting (“centrist voters won’t move to the right, while left-leaning voters will move to the NDP, leaving a smaller Liberal minority with more NDP representation”) is interesting, but if I remember correctly, when the first installment of Gomery came out the NDP gained in the polls but the Conservatives gained more and pulled even with the Liberals. So at the very least it’s a risky strategy.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
November 16th, 2005 at 6:49 pm
I just watched CBC Newsworld and the general consensus seemed to be that the Liberals have lost their ability to appeal to Canadians on the basis of national unity, given their lack of support and credibility in Quebec. Maybe my fourth reason wasn’t such a good one.
Incidentally, I’m starting to think that Quebec separation is a foregone conclusion. The PQ will win a referendum on sovereignty sooner or later.
November 17th, 2005 at 8:51 am
Quebec’s not the only province considering their own fate.
I had the opportunity to speak to a few senior Tory MPs at a charity reception early in Nov. They were all from Alberta, and they each individually said the same thing: that the senitment amongst their constiutents was universal – if Ontario votes the Liberals back into power, Albertans will lose their faith in federalism. This is obviously a message coming from their own supporters, but these guys won their seats by a landslide. Their supporters are a strong majority where they live. Given the unprecedented prosperity of Alberta at the moment, and the regional power base that the province holds in the official opposition party (just look at Harper’s shadow cabinet), this next election may be an uber-referendum held on Alberta’s position in Canada. One thing is certain, and the CBC seems to be heralding this fact, Liberal Party brand of nationalism is in crisis (particularly in Quebec and Alberta).