Oracular Spectacular

Next week is an important week for Canadian politics. With all that is set to take place in the House of Commons this fall, one has to expect some explicit posturing and partisan rabble-rousing as Canadian politicians burst from the gates on Monday. I thought it was time to go on record with a brief prognostication of events to come – if only to defend my title as political oracle on Ade. I’m looking to go 2-0 on electoral predictions. So I say there will be no fall election. Let me tell you why.

Harper is wounded and he has no ammo to defend himself. My prediction: the Libs will kick him while he’s down and attempt to defend their record as strong fiscal managers in the process. There is scarcely an issue for Harper to champion, and his public credibility east of Alberta has never looked worse. To put it bluntly, the cards are not in his favour.

The key issues defining the political narrative this fall are well known. Gas prices and softwood lumber are likely to emerge as the first two topics tackled in the opening round of Question period. This follows two months full of national media attention doted on these two topics. The dire situation in New Orleans (and expectantly in Texas) has increased political expediency of both issues – Can-Am relations & gas price controls.

That said it is also expected that the opening of Parliament will usher in other familiar domestic concerns, issues that dominated the political dialogue in Ottawa before the summer recess. This includes an implicit recognition that an election is around the corner and campaigning is already under way.

Justice Gomery will release the first of two reports about the sponsorship scandal on November 1st. This first report is expected to rile public sentiment about a perceived democratic deficit in Canada, and make partisan politics between parties the order of the day. If Gomery’s conclusions are particularly damaging to the Libs (as it is widely expected to be), one could expect the Liberal government to have a major announcement in the works to push the report off the media’s radar. This announcement could define the premise of the next election. More likely however, it will be some form of omnibus tax legislation that includes two components: corporate tax cuts & gas tax relief – more on this in a moment.

It has also recently been revealed that Justice Gomery’s second report, one that will oblige the Prime Minister’s to fulfill his promise to call and election within 30 days, is going to be delayed. This will set back the forthcoming election – by most recent accounts until March (I’ve recently heard rumours that it could be as late as May). However, an election call could come before winter, if the Government loses a vote of confidence in the House. There are two considerations defining this possibility. First, that Conservative leader Stephen Harper is willing to go to the polls before Gomery issues his final report. Second, that the Liberal’s fall agenda is thought to include some kind of confidence vote in the form of a money bill.

Mr. Harper has recently said he would not hesitate to call an election, if it is required to hold the Government accountable for details of the sponsorship inquiry. And while sources in Ottawa suggest that the Liberals want to avoid giving the Opposition undue opportunity to force an early election, I would say they have little to fear. It is rumoured Finance Minister Ralph Goodale’s fall fiscal update will presage the Liberal’s legislative agenda and could contain budget-like pronouncements such as new tax measures. This is similar to the situation before the 2000 election. I would take this rumour one step further and suggest that, given the current context of a weak and distorted Conservative Party, the tax legislation will become a reality before November. It is unlikely that the Liberal’s would lose on such a bill, literally or figuratively. There are two reasons I say this.

First, being bold enough to introduce such a policy would make the government look active and it would be a show of leadership – something Martin is in dire need of having. Second, it would confuse and divide the opposition to the point that the chances for defeat are nil. If the potential legislative ingredients included corporate tax cuts and also a home heating rebate, or some form gas price regulation, the Conservatives, the Bloc and the NDP would all be at odds to support or deny the passage of the bill. The Tories don’t want to oppose corporate tax cuts (although they could say the cuts don’t go far enough); the Bloc has publicly stated in today’s Gazette that gas prices are the party’s top priority; the NDP too would have a hard time pooh-poohing a home heating rebate. Taken together, I doubt any of them would find ground for a politically expedient coalition to take down the Martin government. (*watch for senior Martinis and the PM publicly criticizing Harper for “holding hands” with the separatists – I suspect this will be the cornerstone of their pre-election smear.)